Having Defeated Domineering CEO, Iron-Blooded Cop's Next Challenge
The Storm Media Editorial, May 18, 2023
Although Terry Gou, founder of Hon Hai Precision Industry Company (Foxconn), held four large-scale campaign rallies from southern to northern Taiwan in early May, and reached a climax with a "Peace Declaration" in Kinmen, he was eventually informed by the Chairman Eric Chu of the Kuomintang (KMT) that he will not be recruited as the party’s presidential candidate. Instead, Mayor Hou Yu-ih of New Taipei will represent the KMT to compete in the 2024 presidential election. In this first round, the tough inspector defeated the domineering CEO. How can he lead the KMT back to political power?
On May 17, at the meeting for the recruitment held by the KMT Central Standing Committee, Hou and Chu set the tone for the upcoming election campaign as "fighting for the better life of the people of Taiwan." When the meeting was nearing the end, the master of ceremonies proclaimed, “secure both a majority in the Legislative Yuan and transfer of political power.” These are the main reasons behind KMT’s nomination of Hou as presidential candidate.
On the evening of May 15, Chairman Chu told Gou that he would not be recruited based on two statistics. First, opinion surveys of KMT mayors, legislators, and legislative nominees, which overwhelmingly support Hou; Second, the public opinion poll shows that Hou’s support is higher than that of Gou. After the completion of the recruitment process, the KMT’s Culture and Communications Committee also explained in detail the above-mentioned indicators for recruiting Hou.
Hou Wins with Harmonious, Coordinative Approach
According to Director Lin Kuan-yu of the KMT’s Cultural and Communications Committee, in terms of public opinion polls, Hou is only slightly ahead of Gou in the comparison between political parties. However, in the Kuomintang’s own polls, Hou’s support within the party is 40.77 percent, while Gou’s is 31.77 percent. In a KMT-DPP face-off, Hou would win over the DPP’s William Lai by 2.43 percent, and Gou would beat Lai by 1.27 percent. If the blue, green and white (Taiwan People’s Party, TPP) faces off in a three-way competition, Hou would fall short to Lai by 4.97 percent, and Gou would lose to Lai by 5.63 percent. As for the comprehensive results of 13 external polls, Hou is also slightly ahead of Gou.
However, in terms of support for Hou and Gou by party legislators, legislator nominees, and heads of local government, Hou greatly outperformed Gou: 10 county and city mayors supported Hou, only one supported Gou and two “respected” the party’s decision. Among the 57 legislators and nominees, 22 supported Hou, 13 supported Gou, and 22 respected the decision of the Party.
It is still too early to see a clear gap in the presidential election polls, but the people want checks and balances, and do not want the same party to dominate the executive and legislative powers. This kind of atmosphere gives the KMT a better chance of winning the legislative elections, which are held concurrently with the presidential election next year. A survey of party legislators and chiefs of counties and cities showed that Hou would be a better “hen” for his legislator “chicks” than Gou if the KMT wants the whole party to unite and secure more than half of the seats in the Legislative Yuan.
As the KMT nominated legislative candidates, Hou successfully coordinated and integrated the party’s potential candidates. In addition to intervening in the nominations for the general election in New Taipei, he also coordinated the nomination competition between the fourth constituency and the first constituency of Taipei City. Even Wang Jin-pyng, former speaker of the Legislative Yuan who is informally dubbed the "King of the Coordination," praised Hou for taking his place.
Hou's harmony and coordination ability within the KMT is better than that of Gou, and Gou's domineering personality makes him more prone to gaffes and mistakes, which may also drag down the election of legislators. For example, Gou said that he would build a nuclear power station at the Banping Mountain in Kaohsiung, or even one nuclear power fusion plant in every county or city. Obviously, these propositions have not been discussed with the local leaders and representatives of the people. If the KMT’s “hen” in the general election next year is really Gou, the chicks may be too busy cleaning up after the hen, and have no time to compete with their opponents.
Gou Reached Peak with Peace Declaration
Throughout Gou’s campaign, people could see that he was still not used to rally occasions. On one event, he appeared too excited to speak even when there were only less than 10,000 people in the audience. It was also revealed that the Gou does not have a deep enough understanding of various issues in Taiwan. In addition to the above-mentioned nuclear power plant issue, when he talked about economic development in Kaohsiung, he was still living in the prosperity of Kaohsiung Port from the last century, during which it was kept busy handling a large number of containers. With the changes in the international division of labor, the technology components produced in Taiwan no longer need to rely on a large number of container transportation.
However, Gou's final performance in the Kinmen Peace Declaration was much better than the previous few rallies. Although there was a teleprompter, it can be seen from his on-the-spot performance that he had already known the content inside out. Even if he did not make a big breakthrough in his discussion of “One China, with respective interpretations” and was criticized by the DPP, from the standpoint of the KMT supporters, it is difficult for other KMT members to surpass Gou's Kinmen Declaration in their cross-strait expositions.
In contrast, Hou is cautious in his words and deeds, especially in fields not within his expertise--cross-strait affairs and diplomacy. He is staying low-key and trying to hide his weaknesses, making only few mistakes in these aspects. For example, he only mentioned "respect" for the 1992 Consensus but did not articulate whether he accepts or endorses the concept. Hou avoided answering when asked about the cornerstones of U.S. policy towards Taiwan, including the Taiwan Relations Act, Three Communiqués, and Six Assurances, in the New Taipei City Council. People wonder whether such clumsy hiding tactics will be able to keep off the opponents and survive the scrutiny by Washington and Beijing.
Beijing Yet to Criticize Hou for Opposing “One Country, Two Systems”
Hou stated that he neither supports Taiwan independence nor accepts “one country, two systems.” When Spokesman Ma Xiaoguang of the Taiwan Affairs Office of mainland China’s State Council, was asked at a press conference on May 17 for comments, Ma did not respond directly, but reiterated that the mainland insists on “peaceful unification” and “one country, two systems” but will take into account realities in Taiwan. At this press conference, Spokesman Ma strongly criticized Lai’s Taiwan independence line without specifying particular names but remained neutral to Gou and Hou, and did not criticize Hou for not accepting “one country, two systems.” Maybe this is "good news” for Hou.
To be Taiwan’s next leader, one cannot avoid U.S.-China-Taiwan relations and geopolitical issues. Although this is Hou’s weakness, the external situation is in his favor. Taiwanese people are more concerned about internal economic and social issues at the moment. Several recent polls conducted by different organizations have shown that the attitude of people in Taiwan towards the administration of President Tsai Ing-wen over the past seven years is generally positive. However, the poll released by the Asia-Pacific Elite Interchange Association--a pro-green association—showed dissatisfied Taiwanese accounted for 52.3 percent, leaving 42.4 percent that expressed satisfaction.
This year also coincides with the global economic downturn, and Taiwan's economic performance is also the worst in recent years. The economic downturn is mostly unfavorable to the ruling party's election situation. If the KMT continues to set the main theme of the general election campaign as "making a better life for Taiwanese people," it will be attractive to voters. If Hou can put forward good policies on Taiwan's internal economic and social issues in a more pragmatic manner, then it will be of great benefit.
Gou and Ko Still Influential in Determining Election Outcome
About half a year remains before official campaigning begins. The official registration date for the presidential candidates is November 20, and the acceptance date for the joint signature registration of presidential candidates is September 13. During this long process, it is hard to predict whether there will be other sudden incidents that affect the election. Even though Gou congratulated Hou in person on the evening of May 16, he still said in a Facebook post that “Taiming (Terry) will continue to stand up regardless of difficulties and self-interest, fight for the happiness of the people, fight for the peace of the Republic of China, and never give up." The last few words "never give up" imply all kinds of possibilities.
In addition, according to various polls, if Chairman Ko Wen-je of the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) runs for the presidency, a three-way race will be beneficial to Lai. Now that the TPP has announced to nominate Ko as the presidential candidate, can Hou handle the highly self-righteous Ko?